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Bank of England forecast error

May 8, 2015 7 comments

Or, the guv’nor at least.  The Guardian on Mervyn King circa early 2010 on the Tories circa 2015:

“I saw the governor of the Bank of England [Mervyn King] last week when I was in London and he told me whoever wins this election will be out of power for a whole generation because of how tough the fiscal austerity will have to be,” Hale said in an interview on Australian TV reported by Reuters.

A little indifferent to the headline result here, but sad to see so many true liberal voices leaving Parliament.  You’ll be missed, Vince.

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Categories: Politics

Osborne’s Reverse Ferret on Gilt Yields

July 5, 2013 8 comments

I’m still catching up, and I didn’t see anybody pick up on this.  Team Osborne have long been champions of the “low gilt yields” ⇒ “confidence in government policy” ⇒ “austerity is successful” logic.  But read Osborne’s Mansion House speech, my emphasis:

And this brings me to the important question of how monetary policy should balance the ongoing need for stimulus with emerging signs of recovery.

Each step along the path must, without question, be for the judgment of independent central banks including our own. The sharp jumps in bond yields we’ve seen in too many countries in recent years have been a sign of confidence departing.

But if the recovery gathers strength then a steady rise in bond yields across the largest developed countries will be a sign of confidence returning.

The recent turbulence in financial markets has emphasised the vital importance of clear communication.

There is a risk that poor communication could lead to stimulus being inadvertently withdrawn too soon.

More clarity about the future path of interest rates could help keep financial markets more stable.

I don’t think Osborne has ever before claimed before that gilt yields are positively correlated with “confidence”.  This is a welcome development, but it does make a mockery of what he said before.  It is also interesting that the Chancellor is so openly – and apparently successfully – guiding the MPC towards “Plan Woodford”.

(Yes, “Reverse ferret” is a much better phrase than the clichéd “U-Turn”.)

Categories: Monetary Policy, Politics