Home > Bank of England, Data > Update on that supply shock

Update on that supply shock

An update on a previous post.  Independent forecasts for UK real GDP growth in 2015 are exactly the same as before the oil price collapsed.  From HM Treasury’s collection of forecasts from last month:

HM Treasury Average of Independent Forecasts, April 2015.  Source: HMT

HM Treasury Average of Independent Forecasts, April 2015. Source: HMT

The median real GDP forecasts from the Bank are now slightly lower than August last year, when the oil price was above $100.  Carney claimed there was an “unambiguously positive” effect of falling oil price… doesn’t look that way.  Even if the falling oil price lowered forecast unemployment – not impossible as before, go from lower forecast inflation to less tight monetary policy to jobs – there has been an offsetting negative drag on expected output – maybe losing more jobs in the North Sea?

BoE Median Forecast for Real GDP Growth

BoE Median Forecast for Real GDP Growth. Source: BoE

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Categories: Bank of England, Data
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