Home > Data, UK GDP > UK 2014 Q3 Nominal GVA, Early Estimate

UK 2014 Q3 Nominal GVA, Early Estimate

Eagle-eyed reader James noticed earlier this year that the ONS have started releasing a low-level breakdown of GDP which includes current price data even in the “Month 1” GDP data.  The official data in each quarter’s Month 1 estimate only has volume (real) measures of GDP, so previously we had to wait for the Month 2 estimate to get nominal GDP.  The low-level breakdown is for GVA so I’ll compare against the official series for nominal GVA:

Q/Q Growth at Annual Rates, %
Year Low-level
NGVA
Estimate
Official
Data
2013 Q1 3.6 4.8
2013 Q2 4.4 4.1
2013 Q3 4.8 6.9
2013 Q4 3.3 2.1
2014 Q1 3.7 3.7
2014 Q2 6.3 7.9
2014 Q3 3.9

The estimate suggests nominal demand growth has continued at a reasonable pace in Q3, adjusting for the “tyranny of low expectations” which allows me to believe 4% NGDP growth is “reasonable”.  Year-on-year growth comparing the low-level data with official nominal GVA:

UK Nominal GVA, Preliminary Estimate vs Official Data

UK Nominal GVA, Preliminary Estimate vs Official Data. Source: ONS 2014 Q3 M1, ABML

Thanks to James for finding this data source.

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Categories: Data, UK GDP
  1. james in london
    October 24, 2014 at 14:30

    Not so eagle-eyed, I didn’t notice the latest release. At least it fits with worries about the current rate of growth in the markets but still, it could be worse as you suggest.

    Those personal taxation revenues remain in a sad state, what a bunch of tax dodgers we’ve become, even if VAT is rising at 4%. And government spending growing at 5% is positively Keynesian.

  2. james in london
    October 24, 2014 at 14:46

    Off topic.
    While Haldane was very clear the other day, sort of, our new Deputy Gov for Monetary Policy Broadbent is frustratingly obscure, or is he saying “just follow the market”:

    “(T)he real task for policy is to understand – and then adapt to – economic forces affecting the natural, or equilibrium rate of interest”. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2014/speech770.pdf

    If the central bank itself is the economic force affecting this via monomanical Inflation Rate Targeting, what then?

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