The Creditable Dullness of Being Mark Carney
UK macro is really quite boring at the moment, and I cannot be happier to report that news. Of course boring events do not get reported as “news”, but that’s why we have blogs. Sure, there is a lot of debate about Scotland and so on which is related to macroeconomics – but UK macro events are not really capturing the headlines. UK GDP updates, labour market news… well, there’s a war on… let’s talk about Putin.
Contrast with the Eurozone. Mario Draghi is exciting! He is doing things. Pulling levers! Fiddling with interest rates. Easing credit conditions, improving financial conditions. Trying to get that CPI rate up… maybe. Oh, and allowing inflation expectations to collapse. That’s news.
Mark Carney expressed a worthy ambition in his statement to the Treasury Select Committee in 2013, that he “would like to achieve an exit in 2018 that is less newsworthy than my entrance”. I think he is well on the way to achieving that. This is how it should be. Central banking should be boring – nominal stability should be boring. If the nominal economy is stable, all the “news” will be “real”, in the sense of being supply-side.
For the first time in years I could not be bothered to watch the Inflation Report live last month, but skipping through the recording, the Broadbent, Carney and Shafik show is delightfully dull. Carney even takes pleasure from his own boringness:
What we’re putting emphasis on, and I know it’s boring and repetitive and it doesn’t clip into a new headline, we’re focusing on the path, the likely path of rates, the limited and gradual adjustment in those rates over the medium term, because of the headwinds that are facing this economy.
First and foremost it’s about the path for rate increases. I know it’s dull, I know it’s repetitive, but that’s the problem with consistency, it’s dull and repetitive.
Bravo Dr. C, bravo. And the annoying cricket metaphors are gone too.
This is what short-term inflation expectations (from gilt yields) looked like when UK macro events were newsworthy:
Quite the roller-coaster. I use the 3.5 year measure because it’s the most complete time series. Note this is RPI not CPI, and RPI at 3% is roughly equivalent to CPI at 2%.
Here is the last year and a bit:
What a dull, dull graph. Carney and the rest of the MPC deserve the highest praise for making macro policy boring.