Archive for July, 2014

Wages vs Employment

July 17, 2014 14 comments

There is an interesting asymmetry in how people read the macro data.

For a given increase in aggregate nominal spending (income) I think it would be generally agreed that “what we want to see” is a higher volume of output and not much inflation.  Does anybody disagree?  Anybody out there who would prefer the trade-off shifts towards higher inflation and lower output growth?  No?

OK.  For a given increase in aggregate nominal income (spending) we can consider the same trade-off between employment and wages.  I had taken it as given that we had a depressed labour market and so “what we want to see” is that increases in aggregate income will translate primarily into higher employment.

What we have seen over the last year looks quite amazing.  Over the year to the March-May 2014 period, hours worked has risen 3.7%.  We only have nominal data for Q1, but that showed a 4.1% rise in nominal aggregate labour income.  In other words, the increase in aggregate income has translated almost entirely into a higher volume of labour employed and there is no inflation – nominal wage growth is maybe just positive.

Yet this is seen somehow as a bad thing, see, for example the Guardian here, which puzzles me.  Do you have a sticky wage model of the labour market, in which AD shocks can raise/lower employment, or not?   Is higher employment in 2014 a good thing, or not?   These questions have simple answers for this simpleton blogger.

6.5% is a good news story, and let’s hope they keep coming.

Categories: Inflation, Wages