Home > Data, UK GDP > UK 2014 Q1 Nominal GDP

UK 2014 Q1 Nominal GDP

Never mind about voting, it’s NGDP day.  Usual caveat first: the quarter-on-quarter growth rates for nominal GDP tend to be unreliable in early estimates.  That said, the data in the second estimate of GDP for 2014 Q1 has nominal GDP growth slightly slower than in the second half of 2013, but still respectable at a 4.9% growth rate.  Here’s the table for q/q growth at annual rates:

Year Nominal
2013 Q1 3.2 1.5 1.4 3.9 2.3
2013 Q2 0.4 -2.7 3.1 -0.3 -3.1
2013 Q3 6.0 2.3 3.4 5.0 1.2
2013 Q4 6.6 3.8 2.7 7.0 4.3
2014 Q1 4.9 1.5 3.2 5.9 2.7

2013 Q2 still stands out as particularly weird there, with strong RGDP but massive deflation.  It seems possible the ONS has struggled to balance income, spending and output measures in that quarter, with timing of bonuses a distortion due to the higher rate tax cut kicking in.

The chart below shows year-on-year growth, switching to GVA to factor out the impact of indirect tax changes on prices:

Source: ONS KGM2 ,  KGM6 ,  KGN3

Source: ONS KGM2, KGM6, KGN3

Real output continues to track growth of nominal demand very closely; the broadest measure of “inflation” across all of GDP (the implied deflator) continues to run below 2% year-on-year even as demand growth has picked up.

Categories: Data, UK GDP
  1. james in london
    May 22, 2014 at 14:55

    I love the blue line, but is nominal GVA or GDP?

    Off topic, but you have to wonder whether Thailand’s problems are that it’s nominal GDP has been running too low for too long. There may be one or two other causes, but healthy NGDP trumps most.

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