UK 2014 Q1 Nominal GDP
Never mind about voting, it’s NGDP day. Usual caveat first: the quarter-on-quarter growth rates for nominal GDP tend to be unreliable in early estimates. That said, the data in the second estimate of GDP for 2014 Q1 has nominal GDP growth slightly slower than in the second half of 2013, but still respectable at a 4.9% growth rate. Here’s the table for q/q growth at annual rates:
2013 Q2 still stands out as particularly weird there, with strong RGDP but massive deflation. It seems possible the ONS has struggled to balance income, spending and output measures in that quarter, with timing of bonuses a distortion due to the higher rate tax cut kicking in.
The chart below shows year-on-year growth, switching to GVA to factor out the impact of indirect tax changes on prices:
Real output continues to track growth of nominal demand very closely; the broadest measure of “inflation” across all of GDP (the implied deflator) continues to run below 2% year-on-year even as demand growth has picked up.