Home > Data, UK GDP > UK 2013 Q3 Nominal GDP

UK 2013 Q3 Nominal GDP

The Q3 nominal GDP figures are out.  I cannot be too unhappy with NGDP growing at nearly a 7% quarterly rate.  If this rate of nominal growth can continue consistently for a couple of years that is close enough to what I’d hoped we’d see.

Here is the quarterly growth profile, at seasonally adjusted annual rates:

Year Nominal
GDP
Deflator Real
GDP
2012 Q4 2.3 3.9 -1.2
2013 Q1 4.6 2.7 1.5
2013 Q2 1.6 -0.8 2.7
2013 Q3 6.9 3.5 3.2

On the annual view, I’ve used GVA not GDP to factor out the VAT changes as usual; real and nominal GVA continue to move in lock step, with the GVA deflator still stuck around 1-2% since the beginning of 2010:

UK Gross Value Added

UK Gross Value Added. Source: ONS ABML , CGBV , ABMM

And for the all-important fiscal arithmetic, for a change nominal GDP is growing faster than OBR forecasts, hence debt/GDP and deficit/GDP should come in a little better than expected.

UK Nominal GDP versus OBR Forecast

UK Nominal GDP versus OBR Forecast. Source: ONS, OBR

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Categories: Data, UK GDP

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