UK 2013 Q3 Nominal GDP
The Q3 nominal GDP figures are out. I cannot be too unhappy with NGDP growing at nearly a 7% quarterly rate. If this rate of nominal growth can continue consistently for a couple of years that is close enough to what I’d hoped we’d see.
Here is the quarterly growth profile, at seasonally adjusted annual rates:
On the annual view, I’ve used GVA not GDP to factor out the VAT changes as usual; real and nominal GVA continue to move in lock step, with the GVA deflator still stuck around 1-2% since the beginning of 2010:
And for the all-important fiscal arithmetic, for a change nominal GDP is growing faster than OBR forecasts, hence debt/GDP and deficit/GDP should come in a little better than expected.