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Worthwhile Canadian Exports

Growth is weaker than expected?  Clearly that’s fiscal policy.  Growth is much, much stronger than expected… well, let’s not worry about the details.  Chris Giles has a carefully argued debunking of fiscalist revisionism, but I’m here to provide the silly charts.

Carney Effect.

Carney Effect. ECFIN Economic Sentiment Indicator, ONS ABMI

More seriously, the sharp turnaround in the survey indicators since June is quite remarkable, and forecasters certainly were not expecting that earlier in the year.  Supply-side adjustment plus a moderate demand-side boost from easing monetary conditions still seems like a reasonable explanation, but the long wait for the Q3 NGDP figure is going to be painful.

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