Home > Data, UK GDP > UK 2013 Q2 Nominal GDP

UK 2013 Q2 Nominal GDP

The nominal GDP numbers are out for Q2 and are weak, the impressive thing is the negative GDP deflator for the quarter – yes that’s deflation.  As usual the q/q rates are highly unreliable in this first estimate, so should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

The annual rate has improved but this mostly reflects the 2012 Q2 quarter falling out.

Last four quarters at seasonally adjusted annual rates:

Year Nominal
GDP
Deflator Real
GDP
2012 Q3 4.7 1.6 3.0
2012 Q4 3.2 4.3 -0.9
2013 Q1 3.8 2.7 1.1
2013 Q2 1.7 -1.1 2.9

And here’s the graph using nominal GVA, to avoid the VAT distortions across 2008-11:

UK GVA

UK GVA. Source: ONS ABML , CGBV , ABMM

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Categories: Data, UK GDP
  1. James in London
    August 24, 2013 at 09:10

    Mmm. Sooooo, 2q 13 is the start of a long-awaited recovery (GVA) or a new downturn (GDP)? Or both just a consequences of “noise” in a very large number not growing much? My son doing physics says all macroeconomics measures are unscientific as none come with proper margins of error like in his field.

    • August 24, 2013 at 17:47

      I should have made clear… gva&gdp moving together at the moment… the rise in y/y gva is because q2 2012 was so weak. Thanks for the link to Posen’s comments, I had not seen that.

  2. James in London
    August 24, 2013 at 09:32

    Not sure if you’ve seen, but interesting discussion in GDP methodologies in the Comments section. With some hint Adam Posen is thinking.

    http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=23107#comments

  3. W. Peden
    August 24, 2013 at 12:10

    The fall in the deflator is interesting. The RGDP/GDP deflator split over the past few years has been unfavourable; would an evening-out over the next few years be too much to hope for?

  4. August 24, 2013 at 14:52

    thanks for showing the fall in the deflator, Britmouse. I keep saying what we really have is deflation, but no-one’s listening.

    • August 24, 2013 at 17:42

      I would not overstate the significance of the deflator q/q number, it is likely to get revised. Definitely true that the gdp/gva deflators have been lower than the cpi, but still not deflation on an annual basis.

  5. James in London
    August 28, 2013 at 23:16

    Mark Carney disappoints again. His speech was dull, dull, dull. He complained the markets weren’t listening properly. Their response? On the margin at 1.45pm the UK stock market fell a bit (despite some potentially good news for domestic banks), and bond yields rose, despite all the noise on Syria. Carney needs to stop being so bloomin’ conservative about inflation, stop trapping himself and us. And he needs to think a lot harder about the consequences of the 1% wage growth he so casually mentioned.

    The overwhelming message from his speech today was that we are still very much ruled by wise central bankers, ie discretion, rather than wise rules.

    • August 28, 2013 at 23:30

      I agree with most of that James, but I’m becoming resigned to “incrementalism”, if we can call it that. Where King talked endlessly about uncertainty, Carney is talking about providing certainty and clarifying the reaction function. That’s progress even if it is not the progress we all hoped for.

      • James in London
        August 29, 2013 at 09:29

        Mmm. Problem with incrementalism is that at such low rates of NGDP growth the economy will always be hugely vulnerable to demand shocks as there is so little capacity to absorb them via temporarily lower growth without hitting the terrible dangers associated with negative NGDP growth.

        Sure, Carney may have a good reaction function, but as our MM friends say elsewhere that still is like employing the arsonist as the firefighter.

  1. September 13, 2013 at 12:28

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