Home > UK GDP > UK 2013 Q1 Nominal GDP: A Slight Recovery

UK 2013 Q1 Nominal GDP: A Slight Recovery

The Month 2 GDP figures are out for 2013 Q1.  Demand growth was very strong in the quarter, although the quarterly growth rates have recently been erratic, so it is perhaps better to concentrate on the wider view.  The Q1 figures were enough to push the annual NGDP growth rate up to (a still weak) 3.4% over the four quarters to Q1, from just 1.5% in the four quarters to 2012 Q4.

If anything it is surprising that output growth was not stronger in the quarter; the recovery in demand brought mostly inflation.  I was saying the same thing last year and the deflators ended up getting revised down, though I’ve no particularly reason to expect that will happen again.

The usual tables and charts follow.  % growth quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted annual rates:

Year Nominal
2012 Q2 0.5 1.9 -1.5 1.0 2.3 -1.5
2012 Q3 8.4 4.6 3.8 9.2 5.5 3.7
2012 Q4 -1.4 -0.4 -1.2 -3.2 -2.2 -1.2
2013 Q1 6.3 5.3 1.3 7.0 5.8 1.1

And here’s the wider view of GVA:

UK GVA Growth: Nominal, Real, Deflator

UK GVA Growth: Nominal, Real, Deflator. Source: ONS ABML, CGBV, ABMM

Categories: UK GDP
  1. James in London
    May 23, 2013 at 19:53

    What a lot of scr3wy data. Roll on the ONS work on NGDP figures. The GDP deflator just can’t be that volatile, surely.

    Off topic, it looks as though the Chairman of the Fed may be losing control of his committee in his final days, just like Mervyn over here. The market confusion caused by having the outgoing chief being over-ruled by his board members is very unhelpful to say the least.

    Obviously, the answer is an NGDP Futures market to take away individual (or small groups of individuals’) discretion of something as important as monetary policy. Scott Sumner for Fed Chairman! And then to abolish his own job and replace it with a computer, appropriately programmed.

    • May 24, 2013 at 21:54

      Yeah, it is weird. I guess the distortions to working days from holidays really do matter. It will be interesting what revisions bring up.

  2. James in London
    May 23, 2013 at 20:03

    Maybe Bernanke’s not being outvoted, but out-speeched, out-minuted? Not sure of the right phrase!

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