Home > Monetary Policy > Riksbank Successfully Fights Inflation, Debt (and Employment)

Riksbank Successfully Fights Inflation, Debt (and Employment)

Good news from Sweden in the Riksbank’s February 2013 minutes:

The assessment of a majority of four of the Board members was that letting the repo remain at 1 per cent during the year ahead would enable inflation to reach the target of 2 per cent after just over a year and resource utilisation to normalise. They did not believe that a slightly lower repo rate would alter this assessment in any decisive way. They also regarded the chosen repo-rate path as appropriate considering that the risks that the high level of household indebtedness poses to economic development in the long term still remain.

The Riksbank is fighting the Swedish household debt bubble – excellent news!  Right, everybody?  Debt is really, really bad for you.  A bit like inflation.

What does Lars Svensson think about this monetary policy regime?

Deputy Governor Lars E.O. Svensson began by stating that in order to assess which monetary policy should be conducted it is important to view monetary policy in a broader context. He claimed that what we have been witnessing for some time now is a clear and serious failure of monetary policy. His first point in support of this claim was that CPIF inflation was close to the target of 2 per cent in 2010 but that since then it has steadily trended downwards to arrive at or below 1 per cent in 2012. At the same time, unemployment is now high and rising, and far above a long-run sustainable rate. He wondered what happened in 2010 that can explain the fall in CPIF inflation. From and including the monetary policy meeting in June 2010, the majority on the Executive Board steadily raised the repo rate at every monetary policy meeting, from 0.25 in June 2010 to 2 per cent in July 2011, an increase of 1.75 percentage points.

“a clear and serious failure of monetary policy” … “He wondered what happened in 2010 that can explain the fall in CPIF inflation” …  OUCH!

I do not wish to further enhance the cult of the central banker.  But when somebody sticks their neck this far out, attacking the incoherence of their colleagues’ arguments to their faces… with reason, theory, and history all on side… there is a word we can use to describe this behaviour – heroic.  Lars Svensson and Karolina Ekholm – I salute you both for fighting the hawks.

Advertisements
Categories: Monetary Policy
  1. Ravi
    March 6, 2013 at 12:55

    Nice post – I always enjoy it LEOS tells his colleagues “look…you don’t know what you’re doing”. They must detest him haha. I was thinking this morning about your theory that the colloquial use of “money is tight these days” was a more accurate reflection of the stance of monetary policy than interest rates. I didn’t quite agree, but my wife pointed out that it irritates her when people in the US say “we’re in a recession”. She thinks it’s a sloppy use of economic jargon – and I agree – but I think the colloquial use also reflects general confidence and velocity. So every time some Very Serious Person tells us that things are booming and we need to watch for bubbles, I feel like telling them to talk to some ordinary people – that may tell you what the stance of monetary policy is!

    • March 6, 2013 at 22:42

      Thanks for your great comment, Ravi! I read that some on the Riksbank BOG are indeed trying to elbow Svensson out, his term is up and they don’t want him around.

      Yes it is very strange reading comments about the US “recession” from a UK perspective. Maybe these phrases are only reflections of the state of the labour market.

  1. May 3, 2013 at 05:15
  2. June 26, 2013 at 21:00

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: