Inflation Watch: (Some) Bank Forecasts Come Good
Today’s news is that the OBR made some forecasts and some of them weren’t quite right.
Over at the Bank of England, I suspect there is widespread relief that the CPI numbers are behaving as expected for a change, after the September bulletin was published today. The CPI rate is following almost exactly the median forecast set out in the Inflation Reports of November 2011 and February 2012:
I wonder if the hawks (Ben Broadbent and Spencer Dale) might claim the disinflation program they initiated in May worked exactly as desired, with a two-month interval in the extension of the monetary base allowing the strength in Sterling, and the associated import deflation pushing down domestic prices.