Home > Bank of England, Inflation > Inflation Watch: (Some) Bank Forecasts Come Good

Inflation Watch: (Some) Bank Forecasts Come Good

Today’s news is that the OBR made some forecasts and some of them weren’t quite right.

Over at the Bank of England, I suspect there is widespread relief that the CPI numbers are behaving as expected for a change, after the September bulletin was published today.  The CPI rate is following almost exactly the median forecast set out in the Inflation Reports of November 2011 and February 2012:

UK CPI Rate vs Bank Forecast

UK CPI Rate against Bank of England Forecasts

I wonder if the hawks (Ben Broadbent and Spencer Dale) might claim the disinflation program they initiated in May worked exactly as desired, with a two-month interval in the extension of the monetary base allowing the strength in Sterling, and the associated import deflation pushing down domestic prices.

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Categories: Bank of England, Inflation
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