Home > UK GDP > UK 2012 Q2, Quarterly National Accounts

UK 2012 Q2, Quarterly National Accounts

Some significant GDP revisions to quarterly rates in the Q2 Quarterly National Accounts this morning, though the levels remain roughly the same.

The ONS seem to have moved a chunk of nominal GDP previously counted towards Q1 forward to Q2.  Annualized quarterly growth rates here, showing both GDP at market prices and Gross Value Added at basic prices so as to “look through” the effect of VAT changes in 2011 as usual (market prices include VAT, basic prices do not):

Quarter Nominal
2011 Q1 6.2 1.9 4.2 4.2 2.4 1.8
2011 Q2 1.7 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.5
2011 Q3 2.2 2.1 0.0 1.1 2.2 -1.1
2011 Q4 2.2 -1.4 3.8 2.5 -1.1 3.6
2012 Q1 0.0 -1.2 1.1 0.5 -1.1 1.5
2012 Q2 4.1 -1.5 5.6 4.7 -1.6 6.4

The implied deflator on GVA at basic prices has been revised from very very bad to utterly horrendous in Q2.  More revisions likely?

That said, if we use nominal GVA as the best proxy for aggregate demand, a +4.7% annualized growth rate is actually the best quarter for demand growth since 2008 Q1.  Headlines you won’t read today: “UK aggregate demand soars in Q2”.

Categories: UK GDP
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