Home > UK GDP > UK 2012 Q2 GDP, Death by Deflator Edition

UK 2012 Q2 GDP, Death by Deflator Edition

It’s NGDP day, the month 2 estimates for 2012 Q2 are out.  Here’s the headline number: UK nominal GDP grew by 1.7% (annualized rate) in Q2 since Q1.

Nominal GDP at basic prices (which ignores indirect taxes), is slightly stronger again at 2.0%.

The deflator is really high again, like Q1.  Really, really, bad.  Obviously the nominal demand figures are awful too, and the main source of concern.  Quarter on quarter growth, seasonally adjusted annualized rates:

Qtr Nominal GDP Real GDP Deflator
2011 Q1 5.6 1.6 3.8
2011 Q2 1.1 -0.4 1.5
2011 Q3 3.0 2.4 0.4
2011 Q4 1.2 -1.2 3.0
2012 Q1 1.8 -1.5 3.0
2012 Q2 1.7 -1.6 3.4

If we look at Gross Value Added at basic prices, which attempts to avoid the distortion from the VAT rise in 2011, here are the numbers:

Qtr Nominal GVA Real GVA Implied Deflator
2011 Q1 3.4 2.2 1.2
2011 Q2 1.1 0.1 1.0
2011 Q3 1.8 2.5 -0.7
2011 Q4 1.3 -1.2 2.5
2012 Q1 2.3 -1.4 3.8
2012 Q2 2.0 -1.8 3.8

The deflator growth in 2012 Q2 seems to be bad in both the household consumption and government consumption sectors, I will try to do a post on the numbers over the weekend.

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Categories: UK GDP
  1. August 25, 2012 at 13:21

    Yuk. Why’s the deflator so high?

  1. August 28, 2012 at 12:54
  2. September 27, 2012 at 12:50

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