UK 2012 Q2 GDP, Death by Deflator Edition
It’s NGDP day, the month 2 estimates for 2012 Q2 are out. Here’s the headline number: UK nominal GDP grew by 1.7% (annualized rate) in Q2 since Q1.
Nominal GDP at basic prices (which ignores indirect taxes), is slightly stronger again at 2.0%.
The deflator is really high again, like Q1. Really, really, bad. Obviously the nominal demand figures are awful too, and the main source of concern. Quarter on quarter growth, seasonally adjusted annualized rates:
|Qtr||Nominal GDP||Real GDP||Deflator|
If we look at Gross Value Added at basic prices, which attempts to avoid the distortion from the VAT rise in 2011, here are the numbers:
|Qtr||Nominal GVA||Real GVA||Implied Deflator|
The deflator growth in 2012 Q2 seems to be bad in both the household consumption and government consumption sectors, I will try to do a post on the numbers over the weekend.