Home > Data, UK GDP > UK 2013 Q3 Quarterly National Accounts

UK 2013 Q3 Quarterly National Accounts

The ONS delivered a variety of Christmas presents this week in the form of the labour market data (which is very good, per Lars), and the Q3 national accounts.  There is bad news and good news in the GDP revisions.

First the bad news: the impressive Q3 nominal GDP growth rate has been revised down from 6.9% (q/q annualized) to a still-respectable 5.7%.  The good news is that the level of nominal GDP has been revised up for recent quarters.  This moves the year-on-year growth rate up from 3.8% to 4.5% over the four quarters to 2013 Q3.

The “double-dip recession” has reappeared at the beginning of 2012, though the latter half now looks better.  The revisions make 2012 look even stranger; Q4 nominal GDP was revised up to a growth rate of +5.5% (annualized) and yet real GDP growth is still recorded as falling that quarter!

Here is the data, table at quarterly rates of GDP (annualized), and chart of annual GVA growth, as usual:

Year Nominal
GDP
Deflator Real
GDP
2012 Q3 4.3 1.2 3.2
2012 Q4 5.5 5.9 -0.5
2013 Q1 4.3 2.3 2.0
2013 Q2 2.6 -0.4 3.2
2013 Q3 5.7 2.3 3.1
UK Gross Value Added

UK Gross Value Added. Source: ONS ABML , CGBV , ABMM

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Categories: Data, UK GDP
  1. ChrisA
    December 21, 2013 at 02:34 | #1

    Re: Q42012, I don’t believe that real GDP can change so much from trend in just one quarter from the previous quarter and following quarters unless driven by some external shock. I suspect data issues.

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