Home > UK GDP > UK 2012 Nominal GDP

UK 2012 Nominal GDP

The second estimate of GDP for 2012 Q4 is out, and we now have the first estimate of NGDP for that quarter along with annual NGDP data for 2012.

2012 saw the second lowest annual nominal GDP growth on record, after 2009.  Here are annual data for the last five years, as usual showing both market prices (GDP) and basic prices (GVA) to highlight the impact of indirect tax changes which push up the former:

Year Nominal
GDP
GDP
Deflator
Real
GDP
Nominal
GVA
GVA
Deflator
Real
GVA
2008 2.0 3.0 -1.0 2.5 3.4 -0.8
2009 -2.7 1.3 -4.0 -2.0 2.1 -4.1
2010 4.6 2.8 1.8 3.5 1.7 1.8
2011 3.4 2.4 0.9 2.4 1.4 1.0
2012 1.5 1.3 0.2 1.7 1.5 0.2

Here is the breakdown for the last four quarters, quarterly change at annualized rates:

Year Nominal
GDP
GDP
Deflator
Real
GDP
Nominal
GVA
GVA
Deflator
Real
GVA
2012 Q1 1.6 1.9 -0.3 3.4 3.5 -0.2
2012 Q2 -3.1 -1.5 -1.4 -3.8 -2.3 -1.3
2012 Q3 6.6 2.3 3.9 7.2 3.1 4.0
2012 Q4 0.4 1.5 -1.0 -1.2 0.0 -1.0

This is what tight money looks like in pictures:

UK Gross Value Added

UK Gross Value Added.  Source: ONS Series ABML, CGBV, ABMM

Finally the updated market monetarist “NGDP gap” chart, the hole gets ever larger:

UK Nominal GDP versus Trend

UK Nominal GDP versus Trend

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Categories: UK GDP
  1. February 27, 2013 at 13:14

    It makes me sad :(

    Though. On the bright side. At least we are not under the ECB.

    • February 28, 2013 at 00:12

      Yes, self-inflicted paralysis is much easier to escape than ECB-inflicted paralysis! Thank God we found that out in 1992!

  2. February 27, 2013 at 23:26

    NGDP rebasing to a lower and shallower trend, do you think?

    • February 28, 2013 at 00:09

      NGDP will follow whatever trend the BoE desires, I have no idea what that is right now :)

      • Nishant
        February 28, 2013 at 12:38

        It seems to be any trend between a severe recession and an actual recovery.

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