UK 2012 Nominal GDP
The second estimate of GDP for 2012 Q4 is out, and we now have the first estimate of NGDP for that quarter along with annual NGDP data for 2012.
2012 saw the second lowest annual nominal GDP growth on record, after 2009. Here are annual data for the last five years, as usual showing both market prices (GDP) and basic prices (GVA) to highlight the impact of indirect tax changes which push up the former:
| Year | Nominal GDP |
GDP Deflator |
Real GDP |
Nominal GVA |
GVA Deflator |
Real GVA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 2.5 | 3.4 | -0.8 |
| 2009 | -2.7 | 1.3 | -4.0 | -2.0 | 2.1 | -4.1 |
| 2010 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 2011 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 2012 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
Here is the breakdown for the last four quarters, quarterly change at annualized rates:
| Year | Nominal GDP |
GDP Deflator |
Real GDP |
Nominal GVA |
GVA Deflator |
Real GVA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 Q1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | -0.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | -0.2 |
| 2012 Q2 | -3.1 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -3.8 | -2.3 | -1.3 |
| 2012 Q3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 4.0 |
| 2012 Q4 | 0.4 | 1.5 | -1.0 | -1.2 | 0.0 | -1.0 |
This is what tight money looks like in pictures:
Finally the updated market monetarist “NGDP gap” chart, the hole gets ever larger:
UK Nominal GDP versus Trend
Categories: UK GDP
It makes me sad :(
Though. On the bright side. At least we are not under the ECB.
Yes, self-inflicted paralysis is much easier to escape than ECB-inflicted paralysis! Thank God we found that out in 1992!
NGDP rebasing to a lower and shallower trend, do you think?
NGDP will follow whatever trend the BoE desires, I have no idea what that is right now :)
It seems to be any trend between a severe recession and an actual recovery.