The Pendulum Economy
The chorus of scepticism about UK NGDP targeting which has surfaced in the press since Carneymania deserves a response, which I’ll attempt at some point in the new year. The Q3 Quarterly National Accounts have also resolved some mysteries in the national accounts, that also deserves a post.
Without the time for any of that, I’ll end the year with a graph I thought was interesting, if probably not in any way significant:
This breaks down real GDP into real gross domestic expenditure (consumption plus investment) and separately real net trade (exports minus imports). I thought the pattern of swings since 2008 was curious; from falling domestic spending plus a positive net trade balance in 2008/9, to the inverse combination in 2010, then flipping back and forth again in 2011 and 2012.
And with that I’m done for the year… Merry Christmas!