UK 2012 Q2 GDP in Pictures

Some graphs updated for 2012 Q2. UK nominal GDP is now 15% below the circa 5% trend growth path followed in the decade to 2007:

UK Nominal GDP. Source: ONS Series YBHA.

The instability of nominal income growth since 2010 has not produced a significant downturn in the labour market, as it did in 2008/9.  I’ve used the LFS “claimant count” here, but the unemployment rate shows a similar picture of high but not rising unemployment.

Nominal GDP Deviation From Trend, and Employment. Source: ONS Series YBHA, MGSX

Lastly here is the development of nominal gross domestic expenditure (consumption plus investment), the impact of net trade, nominal and real GDP, by quarter.  Quarterly growth at annualized rates, seasonally adjusted figures.

Qtr	Nominal GDE	Net Trade Impact	Nominal GDP	Real GDP
2011 Q1	1.0	+4.6	5.6	1.6
2011 Q2	4.0	-2.9	1.1	-0.4
2011 Q3	4.2	-1.1	3.0	2.4
2011 Q4	-1.1	+2.4	1.2	-1.2
2012 Q1	4.1	-2.3	1.8	-1.5
2012 Q2	4.8	-3.1	1.7	-1.6

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