Inflation Target at 1.5% since 2008
The forecast data from the August Inflation Report have now been published.
The near-term median CPI forecast has been revised heavily downwards since the May (Q2) Inflation Report, and the forecast looking 2-3 years out is at its lowest this year. Here is a graph of the forecast curves for all three quarters this year.
If we take the two year forecast as the main indicator of the policy stance, then the average (mean) inflation rate which the Bank of England have aimed to hit over the last four years is just 1.5%.
If we take the three year forecast as the indicator instead, the average inflation target over that same period has been 1.8%.
<Cue shock, outrage, resignations, etc. etc.>