UK 2012 Q1 Quarterly National Accounts
The Month 3 revisions for 2012 Q1 GDP are out, as well as updated data going back forever.
The shocking news is that 1949 nominal GDP has been revised down by 0.024%. This comes from the fact that the ONS use estimates of output volume as inputs, and then invent a deflator series to derive nominal spending. But then they revise the deflator; in this case the switch from an RPI to CPI-based deflator has caused downgrades to NGDP going back a long way.
A change to the treatment of insurance company output has upgraded the 2005 real GDP growth figure from 2.0% to 2.8%. The ONS explain all.
Back to 2012. As often happens, it looks like some nominal spending has been smoothed out across recent quarters. Look at those deflators. Just awful, and the Q1 deflator is flattered by NGDP at market prices growing slower than NGDP at basic prices. The
“ex VAT” basic prices deflator for Q1 would be +3.8%. What. The. Heck?
Quarter on quarter growth, seasonally adjusted annualized rates:
|Quarter||Nominal GDP||GDP Deflator||Real GDP||NGDP at Basic Prices|