UK 2011 Nominal GDP
With the second estimate of UK 2011 Q4 GDP growth now published, we have the first estimate of nominal growth in that quarter, and of annual nominal GDP in 2011.
Looking at the (seasonally adjusted) annualized quarterly growth rates in Q4, NGDP growth was very weak at 1.9%; with the deflator growth at 2.6% we are left with a 0.7% fall in real GDP.
For the year as a whole we have an estimate of 3.1% NGDP growth against a 2.3% deflator:
Finally, here’s the picture of the “hole” – this projects out the 1997-2006 NGDP trend growth rate of 5.3% – in 2011 Q4 we are now 13% below the trend line:
(It is arguable whether the trend should be chosen to 2007 or 2006 but the results are similar in either case.)